作者：海戏通辛 来源：原创 发布日期：08-23
A | 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI制图 白银开始暴跌。
B | Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was declared dead by the local hospital authority, where he was admitted after being shot on Friday during a speech in the city of Nara in western Japan.,Nicknamed "the Prince," Abe was born to a political family in 1954. His father, Shintaro Abe, was Japan's former foreign minister, while his grandfather Nobusuke Kishi served as prime minister in 1957 and 1960.,Abe took that office in 2006, while Japan's economy was struggling to recover from the 1998 Asian crisis. His first term, which was highly scandalous, ended in a year. However, Japanese voters had faith in him and re-elected Abe as prime minister in 2012 for eight years. He resigned in 2020, citing health issues. He has had ulcerative colitis since he was a teenager.,Before he decided to step down, Abe became the country’s longest-serving prime minister in terms of consecutive days in office, overtaking the record set by his great uncle Eisaku Sato by just four days.,Nevertheless, he remained a highly-praised leader of the largest faction in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Despite his retirement from the prime ministership, Abe remained engaged in politics.,Many labeled Abe's economic policy as "hawkish," it was dubbed "Abenomics," and delivered the Japanese economy from over a decade of stagnation.,As his policy successfully reeled in the Asian crisis, he gained an international reputation.,During Abe's premiership, Russia - Japan relations witnessed an upturn, raising the prospect of signing a peace treaty between the two nations. Abe and Russia's President Vladimir Putin agreed to consider joint economic activity in the Kuril Islands, a Pacific Ocean archipelago that became part of Russia in 1945 after World War Two.,In 2018, Putin and Abe agreed to accelerate peace treaty talks on the basis of a Soviet-era joint declaration.,Leaders Around the Globe Condemn Attack on Ex-Japanese PM Abe07:19 GMT,Abe also reshaped not only Japan's military policy but also formalized the idea of Quad — a four-way alliance brining together India, Australia, and the US.,Quad was founded in 2007 but remained largely passive until 2017, when the leaders of Australia, Japan, India and the US agreed to revive the format in the face of what they perceived as common threats, such as the growing influence of China.,Despite geostrategic rivalry with China, Abe had pursued cooperation with President Xi Jinping.,First elected to parliament in 1993, Abe established the LDP as a dominant force through a series of wins at the National Diet, Japan's legislature.,However, Abe's political career was not far away from scandal, as his wife, Akie Abe, was linked to a cronyism scandal related to the sale of state-owned land to a private school operator.。 而扣动扳机的，极有可能是一个叫凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的男人。 随着这位美联储主席热门候选人的上位概率飙升，全球资产定价逻辑正在发生剧烈反转。 此前，银价暴涨逻辑主要有3： 1.美元长期弱势预期强化了白银的“准货币资产”地位，吸引大量保值和避险资金流入，使其从“工业配角”转变为“终极价值储藏工具”； 2.美联储降息压低名义利率和实际利率，大幅降低了白银这类无息实物资产的持有机会成本，激发其金融属性，吸引配置型和交易型资金大规模入场； 3.工业需求刚性增长，供给弹性极低导致2021年以来持续性供给短缺且缺口可能进一步扩大。
C | 在这个逻辑闭环里，“法币信用贬值”是最大的助燃剂。
D | 沃什一旦上任，市场预计这位新美联储掌舵人主张通过缩表来回收过剩本币，从而重塑美元作为硬通货的信用。 周五银价暴跌，周末资本市场就开始积极挖掘“银价暴跌利好”概念。 而，光伏电池就是工业耗银的大户。 对于还在产能过剩泥潭中挣扎的光伏行业来说，这无疑是一针强心剂——但这究竟是“起死回生”的灵药，还是仅仅是一次短期的“止痛片”？ 一、松了一口气 妙投认为，银价的下跌直接利好电池与组件环节。 这对于目前普遍亏损、且对银价极度敏感的电池片及一体化企业，是喘息之机。 据2025年业绩预告，4大一体化组件巨头晶科、隆基、晶澳、天合光能的亏损均在40亿元以上，电池企业爱旭股份、钧达股份亏损也超过了12亿元。
E | 本来就在流血，4季度银价暴涨更让不富裕的电池企业雪上加霜。 让我们复盘一下4季度银价的变化。现货白银从2025年10月初的47.28美元/盎司，一路狂飙到年底的71.99美元/盎司，季度涨幅超52%。最疯狂的12月，一个月涨了25%，甚至一度触及83.97美元的高位。
F | 而电池企业爱旭股份、钧达股份3季度的归母净利润分别为-5.23亿元、-4.19亿元，4季度的亏损进一步扩大。
G | 值得注意的是，随着白银价格一路走高，银浆已取代其他材料，成为光伏组件中占比最大的辅材，成本占比高达19.3%。 由于光伏反内卷的方向转向市场化竞争，过剩的产能还未出清，春节前属于光伏的淡季，下游也不旺盛，组件厂商不敢随意涨价。 反常的是，2026年以来组件厂家开始多次涨价，并不完全是顺势抬价，而是银价上涨被动转嫁成本。 1月20日，天合光能第三次上调分布式组件指导价，普通组件报价定格于0.88-0.92元/W，较月初累计上涨6分/瓦，涨幅达7%。
H | （图片来源：天合光能公众号） 紧随其后，隆基绿能、TCL中环等11家头部企业密集跟涨，部分厂商一周内两次提价，最高累计涨幅突破0.15元/W。 可见，银价已成为直接影响到光伏组件价格的重要因素。
I | 那么，这次银价下跌会给光伏组件带来多大的影响呢？ 据赶碳号测算，若沪银从32382元/千克，直接跌到24832元/千克，每公斤跌了7550元。 这意味着，每W电池片以及每W组件的硬成本，就能下降0.1元。 妙投按照当下天合光能组件价格0.88元/W进行测算，成本下降1毛钱/W，毛利率将提升11.36%。而2025年第三季度天合光能的毛利率为4.49%。 可见，银价暴跌会对光伏电池、组件企业的盈利有产生较大的影响。 短期来看，光伏电池、组件企业因成本缓解，面对经营压力也将松了一口气。 资本市场也会看到这一点，去寻找银价暴跌受益概念。妙投认为，受银价的暴跌的影响，光伏电池、组件因板块将有所反弹。
J | 那么，这个反弹会持续多久呢？ 二、还得看长期逻辑 当下，银价虽处于暴跌，后面一旦延续降息的宽松周期，银价仍有上涨的可能。 妙投认为，这里的反弹无需抱有太高的预期，可参考银价的变化。
K | 值得注意的是，银浆价格下跌，对光伏投资逻辑的核心影响在于，它有可能缓解当前行业的最大成本痛点，但并不能自动带来盈利，反而会加速行业技术路线分化与产能洗牌。 目前，光伏行业的最大的问题仍是，过剩产能尚未出清，下游需求增速放缓。而光伏行业真正迎来拐点，还需下游需求提升，过剩产能出清。
L | 现阶段，光伏短期需求并不会快速增长，更多在于市场化出清产能。 这里，不得不说，当下太空光伏的概念比较火热，不少媒体喊出了“太空光伏拯救光伏行业”的声音。
M | 妙投认为，太空光伏这个增量市场让大家看到新的希望，但规模商业化还需时间、钙钛矿技术还不成熟，短期不可能到来。不过，这会给A股的布局太空光伏企业的估值带来想象力。
N | 因此，市场化洗牌仍是光伏行业走出底部的最重要因素。 银价大涨虽带来短期阵痛，但也加速了光伏行业的技术革新，“减少银依赖” 成为行业核心方向。 目前的降本路径主要分为少银化、无银化。 在少银化方面，光伏厂商主要通过0BB（无主栅）、低固含银浆、银包铜来实现。当前0BB已经有多家厂商进入量产阶段，银包铜已经有头部厂商完成GW级产线改造。 比如：HJT路线，华晟通过0BB和银包铜等技术，已实现银耗降至5.5毫克/瓦，并计划于2026年进一步降至2–3毫克/瓦。 在无银化方面，厂商主要采用纯铜浆和电镀铜技术。目前纯铜浆尚在研发测试中，而电镀铜技术已由龙头BC电池厂商率先实现量产。 比如：据天合光能投资关系表，公司预计在今年上半年实现纯铜浆产品的量产。隆基绿能科技股份有限公司宣布，将很快开始在电池片中用贱金属替代白银。 而光伏“去银化”过程也将加速行业洗牌。 技术储备不足、资金链紧张的小厂，既扛不住之前的高银价采购成本，又无力投入“去银化”研发。在这场去银化的战役中，小厂恐将掉队。 而头部企业凭借资金和技术优势，在完成“去银化”改造后，将拥有更低的成本优势。 短期内，我们能看到毛利修复、股价反弹。
o | 但投资者必须清醒地认识到银浆降价救不了过剩的产能，反转的拐点仍需观察。
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